# COVID-19: CB's house nurse takes your questions



## gafftaper (Mar 22, 2020)

My wife Mrs Gafftaper is a nurse in a cancer clinic. She isn't an expert on viruses, but a big part of her day is spent talking to cancer patients who are extremely vulnerable and answering their questions about COVID-19. To do her best to keep her patients safe, she spends a lot of her time reading the latest research and guidelines from the CDC, WHO, the Hospital she works at, and other prominent medical institutions. I've asked her to come on and comment on some of our previous discussions here and take your questions if you have them.

If you have any questions about COVID-19 please post them here. She'll stop by and respond.


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## gafftaper (Mar 23, 2020)

I'm going to start this off with a couple of questions that I have already asked her but think you might like hearing:

1) How long will it take for us to get from where we are now to a vaccine and this being something like polio that we no longer worry about?

2) What is the deal with these treatment drugs? I've heard about drugs for treating Aids, Ebola, and malaria that they say might be helpful. What is the deal with all the safety testing. People are dying why aren't they just using them right now?

3) Bird Flu, Swine flu, both fizzled out and didn't do much. Influenza comes every year. Why is this such a big scary thing to the medical people? Why do they think that the death numbers will be so much worse this time? 

4) What's this I hear about permanent damage to people who have survived?


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## MNicolai (Mar 23, 2020)

1) Can you kill the virus by parking a blow dryer up your nose?

2) How should I prepare my face and nostrils for getting singed up to 136°F while I apply the hair dryer to my nostrils? Is there a lotion I should be using? If I don't have any lotion is there a video I can watch on YouTube about how to roll my own from household cleaning and grocery products?

"SOURCE" (yes...it's Florida...):


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## seanandkate (Mar 23, 2020)

Good questions @gafftaper . Can I take this opportunity to offer profound thanks to @Mrs Gafftaper and all the healthcare professionals out there that are selflessly doing what needs to be done. HUGE respect. As to question, for a disinfectant solution, what's a good bleach / water ratio to disinfect household surfaces?


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## seanandkate (Mar 23, 2020)

MNicolai said:


> 1) Can you kill the virus by parking a blow dryer up your nose?



OK...so that's moderately horrifying... (@dvsDave Can we get a combination "tear" + "LOL" emoji...? Asking for a friend)


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## dvsDave (Mar 23, 2020)

seanandkate said:


> OK...so that's moderately horrifying... (@dvsDave Can we get a combination "tear" + "LOL" emoji...? Asking for a friend)


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## StradivariusBone (Mar 23, 2020)

At 136 degrees the virus falls apart. At what temp do the membranes in my nasal passageways also fall apart? Being that it's Florida, I'm kinda surprised he didn't suggest putting your nose in the smokestack on your offset smoker while cooking some brisket. How do we get through the stall when slow-cooking the coronavirus? Should I use a dry rub intranasally?


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## gafftaper (Mar 23, 2020)

This does an awesome job of showing how a virus can spread.


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## Mrs Gafftaper (Mar 23, 2020)

gafftaper said:


> How long will it take for us to get from where we are now to a vaccine and this being something like polio that we no longer worry about?


The best estimates at this point are 12 to 18 months for possible release of an effective vaccine. This doesn't mean that in 18 months we'll all be vaccinated, however. It likely will take months of production of the vaccine to have enough for mass distribution. (My suspicion is that it will be released in a gradual, organized form- first to those most vulnerable to dying from COVID19, then to health care workers, then to the general public.) So, even at best estimates, it's likely to take at least a couple of years before we all have the opportunity to be vaccinated against this particular virus. One problem is that this virus has already started mutating, making it harder to pin down and treat. According to the CDC, both the SARS (2003) and MERS (2012) viruses are still infecting people worldwide, although at much lower rates than the current viral threat. So, unfortunately I don't see this realistically becoming as obscure as polio any time soon.


gafftaper said:


> What is the deal with these treatment drugs? I've heard about drugs for treating Aids, Ebola, and malaria that they say might be helpful. What is the deal with all the safety testing. People are dying why aren't they just using them right now?


Well, that is a loaded question. The reason the FDA tightly controls development of treatments is because drugs, or combinations of drugs, can potentially cause more harm than good. As of today, there are already several people who have died because they took hydroxychloroquine without FDA approval or physician approval in hopes of keeping themselves from getting sick. Every medication ever produced has potential side effects. There is always a "risk vs. benefit" discussion when submitting a drug for approval. Also, even if a drug is approved as "safe" in humans, the dose (amount) of the drug that is effective for one health condition may be totally different from the dose that is effective for another condition. Drug testing is a rigorous, tightly controlled scientific process that ultimately produces the best treatment for the condition. In the end, the time taken to carefully study the drug's use saves lives. During WWI and WWII, soldiers on the battlefield were given experimental drugs (without informed consent and under non-scientific conditions). The end result is that some great drugs were "discovered", but likely many soldiers died needlessly from receiving untested drugs in these conditions.



gafftaper said:


> Bird Flu, Swine flu, both fizzled out and didn't do much. Influenza comes every year. Why is this such a big scary thing to the medical people? Why do they think that the death numbers will be so much worse this time?


 If you look back at the actual numbers of Bird Flu and Swine Flu, you will see that they did kill lots of people. The swine flu in particular caused >12,000 deaths in the US in its first year, as well as an estimated 150,000 to 500,000 people worldwide in the first year. Both viruses are still active in the world and causing illness, particularly in less developed countries. The yearly flu viruses have similarities to previous year's versions of the same, meaning that many people already have developed immunity to them, either by way of vaccine or having already had the virus. COVID19 is a "novel" virus, meaning no one has immunity to it. Death rates are still being studied in this virus, so we don't yet know if it's more or less deadly than previous viruses (in percentage of the population). However, there is good proof that humans can shed the virus for 14 days before showing any symptoms, unlike the "typical" flu which doesn't shed infectious cells until after the patient becomes physically ill. This has led to massively accelerating numbers of infected people worldwide in a short amount of time.


gafftaper said:


> What's this I hear about permanent damage to people who have survived?


It's probably too early to speculate fully on the lasting effects of this virus. However, the fact that the virus causes damage/fibrosis to the lungs indicates that patients who recover from more severe forms of the illness may have long lasting decrease in their lung capacity.



seanandkate said:


> Good questions @gafftaper . Can I take this opportunity to offer profound thanks to @Mrs Gafftaper and all the healthcare professionals out there that are selflessly doing what needs to be done. HUGE respect. As to question, for a disinfectant solution, what's a good bleach / water ratio to disinfect household surfaces?


 The CDC recommendation is 1/3 cup bleach per gallon of water.


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## derekleffew (Mar 24, 2020)

> Yes I really am his wife.


Our deepest sympathies, and sincerest thanks, go out to you.


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## Jay Ashworth (Mar 24, 2020)

Have you seen the MMWR piece, promulgated by CDC in the last 48 hours, that suggests, based on the 2 cruise ships, that the virus may stay alive on some surfaces for 17 days, instead of the 2-5 we've been hearing. Any opinion on whether that's just because cruise ships are pessimal environments for killing virii?








Public Health Responses to COVID-19 Outbreaks on Cruise Ships...

More than 800 cases of laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 cases occurred during outbreaks on three cruise ship voyages, and cases linked to several additional cruises have been reported...



www.cdc.gov


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## dvsDave (Mar 24, 2020)

@Mrs Gafftaper I've seen a lot of UV-C lamps being offering to sterilize phones and gadgets. Have there been any studies published yet that list the efficacy or time/intensity of UV-C light on the COVID-19 virus to kill it on a surface?


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## gafftaper (Mar 24, 2020)

dvsDave said:


> @Mrs Gafftaper I've seen a lot of UV-C lamps being offering to sterilize phones and gadgets. Have there been any studies published yet that list the efficacy or time/intensity of UV-C light on the COVID-19 virus to kill it on a surface?


I can mostly answer this. UV-C is generated by the Sun but filtered out by the Earth's atmosphere. So Microbes have never encountered it in nature and have never developed an immunity to it. This makes it highly destructive to bacteria and viruses. UV-C is used in hospitals to sanitize equipment and the rooms themselves. There are some really cool UV-C sanitizing robots that are out now that look like a 6 foot tall Roomba of UV light. There is also some cool UV-C technology being used to sanitize airplanes because UV-C is effective on all surfaces including fabrics. So it's great for seats. There is this cool machine called the falcon that has these wings of UV-C emitters that they roll down the aisle blasting UV on the seats to sanitize an entire airplane in just a few minutes.  This Video is pretty cool. 

UV-C is dangerous to human skin. I have seen people saying don't use UV-C to sanitize your phone because it's dangerous to human skin too. There are some wand products out there that definitely fall in this category. But smart people are interested in these smaller phone sized boxes that you put an item into and blast it from all sides with UV. 

I haven't been able to find any UV-C vs COVID-19 specific studies, but if it can kill MRSA easily and works on the other Corona viruses, it should be effective on COVID-19. 

I did some research into phone sanitizer devices and from what I can tell the products from Phone Soap and Homemedics are the only brands that have been through scientific testing to prove they actually use UV-C and that they are effective. They are also the most expensive products on the market. There are a lot of cheap Chinese knock off products out there for 1/3 the price but you have no way of knowing if they are just using a cheap UV-A or UV-B emitter instead of a true UV-C. 

@Mrs Gafftaper can you comment about the general use of UV-C to sanitize in the hospital?


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## Mrs Gafftaper (Mar 24, 2020)

Jay Ashworth said:


> Have you seen the MMWR piece, promulgated by CDC in the last 48 hours, that suggests, based on the 2 cruise ships, that the virus may stay alive on some surfaces for 17 days, instead of the 2-5 we've been hearing. Any opinion on whether that's just because cruise ships are pessimal environments for killing virii?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


My take on this article is that there is one brief question (among many hypotheses posed) asking if this is one possibility of why the virus was so widely passed through the ships. There are 1001 other more likely reasons the virus persisted, the least of which is that people can be COVID19 positive for up to two weeks without any evidence of illness. This, along with the fact that many of the ship's workers were found to be infected coupled with the insanely close quarters of thousands of people is much more likely to be the cause of the infection. Not that it's impossible that the virus could have lingered on surfaces for 17 days- there's just no solid evidence to this hypothesis as of yet.


gafftaper said:


> @Mrs Gafftaper can you comment about the general use of UV-C to sanitize in the hospital?


Ultraviolet "robot" units are already widely used in many major hospitals to provide a second layer of sanitation. The room is thoroughly cleaned by housekeeping, then the UV machine is placed in the room for an allotted amount of time to further decontaminate all surfaces.


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## gafftaper (Mar 25, 2020)

First, a big thank you to ETC. They are now making face shields for the medical industry and selling them at cost to hospitals. You guys are the best. My wife has already forwarded the information to people in her hospital. Hopefully her hospital can get in on some sweet ETC PPE. Thanks so much for doing your part to help in this difficult time!

The Mrs has been following this doctor on Facebook who goes by the name ZDoggMD for years. She really respects his insight and he posts some funny things too. His recent post gives some hope in these dark times, which I found interesting. Not that much in here for us civilians to do, besides washing our hands, but hopefully he's right and hopefully there is a solution in this data that will get us back to normal soon. If you just want a laugh skip to 18:40 in the video.


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## Jay Ashworth (Mar 25, 2020)

Mrs Gafftaper said:


> My take on this article is that there is one brief question (among many hypotheses posed) asking if this is one possibility of why the virus was so widely passed through the ships. There are 1001 other more likely reasons the virus persisted, the least of which is that people can be COVID19 positive for up to two weeks without any evidence of illness. This, along with the fact that many of the ship's workers were found to be infected coupled with the insanely close quarters of thousands of people is much more likely to be the cause of the infection. Not that it's impossible that the virus could have lingered on surfaces for 17 days- there's just no solid evidence to this hypothesis as of yet.


Ok, so your take was about the same as mine. Thanks.


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## gafftaper (Mar 26, 2020)

So, you are staying at home and doing all the good isolating stuff... But what about the groceries? How many people have picked up that apple? Who squezed your Charmin? Where did the guy stocking the shelf grab your bottle of ketchup? 

This video seems a bit paranoid at first but when you think about it, he's right.


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## gafftaper (Mar 28, 2020)

Researchers at the University of Washington have put together a website with all their latest projections. You can see their numbers on a nation wide or state by state basis. When will the virus will reach maximum strain on the health care system? How many beds will be needed? How many ICU beds? How many beds are available? How many ventilators will be needed? How many deaths? It's sobering but our shut downs are working and the numbers are much better than we originally thought. They set total projected deaths between now and August at 81,100. That's a lot better than the original projected numbers before we started shutting things down. 








IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.



covid19.healthdata.org


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## JChenault (Mar 28, 2020)

gafftaper said:


> Researchers at the University of Washington have put together a website with all their latest projections. You can see their numbers on a nation wide or state by state basis. When will the virus will reach maximum strain on the health care system? How many beds will be needed? How many ICU beds? How many beds are available? How many ventilators will be needed? How many deaths? It's sobering but our shut downs are working and the numbers are much better than we originally thought. They set total projected deaths between now and August at 81,100. That's a lot better than the original projected numbers before we started shutting things down.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



as near as I can tell this is not being updated. Still very useful, but as we move away from the inception date of March 26 it will become less accurate.

its really nice to see someone trying to forecast hospital resource needs over time.


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## gafftaper (Mar 28, 2020)

JChenault said:


> as near as I can tell this is not being updated. Still very useful, but as we move away from the inception date of March 26 it will become less accurate.
> 
> its really nice to see someone trying to forecast hospital resource needs over time.


Yeah, at this point it's only been 2 days since publication, so it's pretty current. But the numbers are changing every hour. So, will they update the data in the future and how often? Hmmm.


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## gafftaper (Mar 31, 2020)

Looks like they updated the projections Monday morning. Unfortunately their projections added some new data that shows they will need more ventilators. 








IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.



covid19.healthdata.org


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## gafftaper (Apr 1, 2020)

They have updated the projections twice this week so far. So they are doing their best to stay current. I know there are other projections out there that have a lot higher numbers. So it may be worse than this. I guess everyone has their own system. These come from a project at the University of Washington funded by the Gates foundation.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/


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## Crisp image (Apr 1, 2020)

This is Australia

It looks like social distancing is working for us.


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## JohnD (Apr 2, 2020)

What really concerns me, the high incidence of false negative tests being reported. This could have serious consequences.


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## gafftaper (Apr 3, 2020)

Mrs Gaff recommends this article about how statistical modeling of the virus to project totals works. Really interesting and helpful to understanding the numbers that are going around.


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## Mrs Gafftaper (Apr 5, 2020)

JohnD said:


> What really concerns me, the high incidence of false negative tests being reported. This could have serious consequences.


While having false negative test results is definitely not desirable or helpful, it might help to think about it this way: if you consider who is being tested for COVID19 right now, it can be broken down into two groups. 1) people who are symptomatic (ie fever, cough, lower respiratory symptoms), and 2) those who work in "high exposure" areas (ie long term care facilities, cruise ships, theme parks). In the first category, the test is being conducted to help determine the appropriate course of treatment and level of isolation the patient should be in. At this point in the pandemic, if you have COVID19 symptoms but test negative, you should continue isolation as if you have COVID19, regardless of the result. If you do get sick enough to be hospitalized, you will be tested again and at that point you may come up with a positive test result. In the second situation, the testing is being done for data and tracking purposes to determine how the virus spread to a large amount of people. Obviously, false negatives don't help with good data collection, but in the end they aren't harmful either.

My speculation on the reasons for false negative results are: 1) every lab test has a known "error rate". Typically not 30%, but tests aren't perfect, no matter what they are. 2) inconsistencies or errors in sample collection. The testing process involves sticking a swab WAY back in your nasal passages and not all patients tolerate/allow sufficient swabbing 3) errors in running the tests. Remember that at the beginning of this pandemic coming to the U.S., there was a COVID19 test available that was approved by the WHO, and which had been widely used in other countries. For whatever reason, this test was rejected by the "powers that be" and a new test was developed by the CDC. This test turned out to be faulty, wasting two weeks' time in getting an adequate test in the U.S., and allowing the disease to spread like wildfire. Once the CDC had finally developed the correct test, our country was way beyond the ability to isolate and control the infection. Subsequently, because we were so far behind, the CDC allowed local small companies to also develop tests in order to bolster the ability to do mass testing. While these tests are great and definitely needed, the fact that many companies are literally scrambling to mass produce testing capability inherently increases the possibility for error. 
We are literally on the 20 yard line in enemy territory with 10 seconds on the clock, doing a "Hail Mary" to try to get ahead of this thing, thanks in part to a very easily and rapidly transmittable virus, and to a poorly managed, slow national system.


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## Mrs Gafftaper (Apr 5, 2020)

Two videos for you to check out:
How Coronoa ACTUALLY Spreads. This one is long but very good. The summary discussion starting at 27 minutes is probably enough for most people. 


As for the question of why it will take so long until we have a vaccine I recommend this video. The first 10-15 minutes will probably be enough for you to get the point.


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## BillConnerFASTC (May 21, 2020)

Why is Arizona looking so bad in terms of projected deaths from pandemic. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/arizona ? Are there that many in the high risk group?


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## gafftaper (May 24, 2020)

BillConnerFASTC said:


> Why is Arizona looking so bad in terms of projected deaths from pandemic. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/arizona ? Are there that many in the high risk group?


Wow that is pretty crazy. I bet you are right about age.


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## BillConnerFASTC (May 24, 2020)

In light of recent headlines, maybe its the data. Gigo.


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## StradivariusBone (May 24, 2020)

Well, Florida was expected to be really bad and outside of the urban areas down south it really hasn't been. And that's in spite of our governor and his pals massaging the data. The proof is in the hospitalizations and we have not been seeing an overwhelming number of people getting admitted. Going to the grocery store now I'd estimate less than half of the patrons are wearing masks and almost every restaurant is back to business as usual. 

I don't know. Everything seems to be a stab in the dark and people are either in the "it's a non-issue" camp or "the sky is falling" camp.


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## Ben Stiegler (May 24, 2020)

MNicolai said:


> 1) Can you kill the virus by parking a blow dryer up your nose?
> 
> 2) How should I prepare my face and nostrils for getting singed up to 136°F while I apply the hair dryer to my nostrils? Is there a lotion I should be using? If I don't have any lotion is there a video I can watch on YouTube about how to roll my own from household cleaning and grocery products?
> 
> "SOURCE" (yes...it's Florida...):



You have some interesting neighbors there, Mike...


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## BillConnerFASTC (May 24, 2020)

Just strange its only state (i think) with projected increase in deaths per day.


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## gafftaper (May 24, 2020)

BillConnerFASTC said:


> Why is Arizona looking so bad in terms of projected deaths from pandemic. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/arizona ? Are there that many in the high risk group?


I shared this with @Mrs Gafftaper and she suggested that not only is it age but also that those older people all migrate from other parts of the country, bringing the virus with them. You can imagine seniors from all over the west coast deciding that the best plan for them to be safe is to go to their winter home/condo in Arizona away from the big cities. 

Also, let's face it, Arizona seniors are more likely to be in the "Jesus protect me from Bill Gates who created this hoax to take over the world and begin the end times, so pass the bleach" club.


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## StradivariusBone (May 24, 2020)

gafftaper said:


> Also, let's face it, Arizona seniors are more likely to be in the "Jesus protect me from Bill Gates who created this hoax to take over the world and begin the end times, so pass the bleach" club.



I feel that, but Florida isn't too far from that. Maybe more younger people, but still plenty of people thinking that masks are a conspiracy theory. Is the population density higher than in Florida? It just doesn't add up.


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## BillConnerFASTC (May 24, 2020)

I would say much less dense in AZ without looking. Im still thinking data error - i think that site updates on Monday, or maybe Tuesday for holiday.


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## BillConnerFASTC (May 24, 2020)

Well, compared to a few states including FL, GA, TX, and a few others, AZ stopped all "orders" for social distancing May 16. I suspect that is basis. I keep looking for upturns in deaths per day in states that have reopened quite a bit but have not seen it yet. And AZ has not seen an increase yet - still downward trend. 

Also struggling with "ordrrs" and actual behavior. Still pretty strict orders in my area but masks have almost disappeared. (Im still wearing mine when there are others anywhere near or in sight.)


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## BillConnerFASTC (May 24, 2020)

Just what i expected - increases in states relaxing orders: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/05/24/health/us-coronavirus-sunday/index.html


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## What Rigger? (May 26, 2020)

gafftaper said:


> I shared this with @Mrs Gafftaper and she suggested that not only is it age but also that those older people all migrate from other parts of the country, bringing the virus with them. You can imagine seniors from all over the west coast deciding that the best plan for them to be safe is to go to their winter home/condo in Arizona away from the big cities.
> 
> Also, let's face it, Arizona seniors are more likely to be in the "Jesus protect me from Bill Gates who created this hoax to take over the world and begin the end times, so pass the bleach" club.


My dad lives in Kingman, Az. It's small, relatively isolated, and low education. If you live there you're either retired and are out of California for tax reasons, a long haul truck driver, or you cook meth. Just trying to talk him through this new normal has been tough, and the cavalier actions attitude of State leaders doesn't help. 
I guess what I'm saying is I'm not surprised and a little scared.


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## Crisp image (May 27, 2020)

What Rigger? said:


> My dad lives in Kingman, Az. It's small, relatively isolated, and low education. If you live there you're either retired and are out of California for tax reasons, a long haul truck driver, or you cook meth. Just trying to talk him through this new normal has been tough, and the cavalier actions attitude of State leaders doesn't help.
> I guess what I'm saying is I'm not surprised and a little scared.


I have been to Kingman. We were traveling from Vegas to the Grand Canyon in 2016 and chose to take Route 66. We had to wait at in and out burger for my mum, aunt and uncle as they got a little lost and did not know how to use the GPS on their smart phone and their battery went flat. We also visited Walmart before we left which we found to be an interesting experience.
Regards
Geoff


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## TimMc (May 29, 2020)

What Rigger? said:


> My dad lives in Kingman, Az. It's small, relatively isolated, and low education. If you live there you're either retired and are out of California for tax reasons, a long haul truck driver, or you cook meth. Just trying to talk him through this new normal has been tough, and the cavalier actions attitude of State leaders doesn't help.
> I guess what I'm saying is I'm not surprised and a little scared.


That's part of the unholy trinity of Arizona - Kingman/Flagstaff/Winslow. Follow the rails...

Edit ps: My dad worked for ATSF RR and we lived briefly in each of those...


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## gafftaper (May 31, 2020)

Some interesting information in this article that perhaps will lead to a better therapeutic treatment. Thanks to @ruinexplorer for sending it along. 








Coronavirus May Be a Blood Vessel Disease, Which Explains Everything

Many of the infection’s bizarre symptoms have one thing in common



elemental.medium.com


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## BillConnerFASTC (May 31, 2020)

I'll be interested to see if this pans out but in the meantime its comforting to know my current meds seem also well suited these symptoms.


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## RonHebbard (May 31, 2020)

gafftaper said:


> Some interesting information in this article that perhaps will lead to a better therapeutic treatment. Thanks to @ruinexplorer for sending it along.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


*Can't view*, something about too many redirects. . . 
Toodleoo! 
Ron Hebbard


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## BillConnerFASTC (May 31, 2020)

Justin's revenge...


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## TimMc (May 31, 2020)

RonHebbard said:


> *Can't view*, something about too many redirects. . .
> Toodleoo!
> Ron Hebbard


Works for me, Ron... Firefox and the NoScript add-on didn't choke on it or give me warnings so either the redirects are to servers/domains I've already approved or they are white-listed. Try again, the article is a good read.


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## RonHebbard (May 31, 2020)

TimMc said:


> Works for me, Ron... Firefox and the NoScript add-on didn't choke on it or give me warnings so either the redirects are to servers/domains I've already approved or they are white-listed. Try again, the article is a good read.


*Still no go for the same reason*: Too many redirects. Win 10 / Google Chrome. 
Toodleoo! 
Ron Hebbard


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## BillConnerFASTC (May 31, 2020)

The border is closed. Sorry. Works fine here.


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## ruinexplorer (May 31, 2020)

RonHebbard said:


> *Still no go for the same reason*: Too many redirects. Win 10 / Google Chrome.
> Toodleoo!
> Ron Hebbard



Here you go.


> *Coronavirus May Be a Blood Vessel Disease, Which Explains Everything*
> *Many of the infection’s bizarre symptoms have one thing in common*
> 
> 
> ...


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## RonHebbard (May 31, 2020)

ruinexplorer said:


> Here you go.


*Thank you! * 
Toodleoo! 
Ron Hebbard


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## Catherder (May 31, 2020)

So it might be a virus that spreads through the air like the flu but then attacks the bloodstream like Ebola? ... 

That’s nice.


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## JohnD (Jun 29, 2020)

From The Daily Mail, the new "improved" virus.
Mutant virus


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## jtweigandt (Aug 4, 2020)

Not a question so much as a comment on some really neat findings by Mayo on non specific immunity in those with recent 
vaccines for other maladies. Both polio vaccine and MMR seem to show protection in the data to the tune of about 50% advantage
1 year post vaccine. Falls off at 3 and 5 years. Matched demographics to compare apples to apples Others are starting trials to look at this too. 







Exploratory analysis of immunization records highlights decreased SARS-CoV-2 rates in individuals with recent non-COVID-19 vaccinations

Multiple clinical studies are ongoing to assess whether existing vaccines may afford protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection through trained immunity. In this exploratory study, we analyze immunization records from 137,037 individuals who received SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests. We find that polio...



www.medrxiv.org


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## gafftaper (Sep 4, 2021)

Mrs. Gaff just posted an update on her Facebook page for friends based on the latest information she has from work. I thought I would share it with you.

" This week's University of Washington Hospital Town Hall meeting had several interesting "take aways" that I thought I'd share. (Disclaimer- 1) I'm not an infectious disease specialist. 2) information is constantly evolving as scientists study the virus-so something said today could be obsolete tomorrow).
*as you've heard on the news, our state (Washington) is at an all time high of COVID cases- more than at the highest peak last year
* 95-98% of the current hospitalized COVID patients are unvaccinated
*No vaccinated COVID patients in the University of Washington hospital system are on ECMO (heart lung support). Therefore, even people with "breakthrough infections" aren't getting as sick as unvaccinated patients.
* there is pretty good evidence that immunity levels wane in time, even in fully vaccinated people. Booster shots will be the norm (just like for flu or tetanus)
* even though antibodies wane in time, there is evidence that T-cell immunity stays the same (T-cells are the heavy hitters that kill any cells infected with the virus)
* The Delta variant causes higher viral load initially. This leads to >2x higher infection rates with this variant. (vs the original COVID variety).
* However, vaccinated people who get the Delta variant get less sick and recover faster; therefore are less likely to spread it to others than unvaccinated people
*Even if you have had COVID, you should get vaccinated. There is evidence that suggests you are 2 x more likely to get COVID again by relying on natural immunity vs vaccine immunity
*Over the counter COVID test kits are not reliable/sensitive in asymptomatic patients. (Don't waste your $$- if you think you might have it, get PCR testing at a test site. Otherwise, don't bother with the OTC tests)
*All three vaccines are equally effective per current data."


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## gafftaper (Sep 9, 2021)

Mrs Gaff shared this one with me tonight and I thought I would pass it along. This is a website with a lot of good detailed analysis. The IHME is a team at University of Washington that combines statistics with medical research to try to project where we are going with Covid. http://www.healthdata.org/covid/video/insights-ihmes-latest-covid-19-model-run


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## seanandkate (Sep 9, 2021)

gafftaper said:


> Mrs Gaff shared this one with me tonight and I thought I would pass it along. This is a website with a lot of good detailed analysis. The IHME is a team at University of Washington that combines statistics with medical research to try to project where we are going with Covid. http://www.healthdata.org/covid/video/insights-ihmes-latest-covid-19-model-run



Well THAT wasn't the happiest thing I've read today... Stop the world. I wanna get off.


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## rsmentele (Sep 10, 2021)

Did you all also see the news from the Biden Administration? 
https://www.whitehouse.gov/covidplan/ 
They are going to require, through OSHA's jurisdiction, that all employers with over 100 employees require vaccination, or weekly testing
They also specifically call out all entertainment venues to require proof of vaccination or recent negative test. I find that one encouraging as they are taking the 'Bad Guy' status away from the venues and it will hopefully allow them to continue producing events instead of cancelling because of expected backlash.


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## Van (Sep 10, 2021)

seanandkate said:


> Well THAT wasn't the happiest thing I've read today... Stop the world. I wanna get off.


NO Anthony Newly! Stop it, Stop it now.


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## seanandkate (Sep 11, 2021)

Understood.... ***slinks away humming a different musical...***


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## jtweigandt (Sep 14, 2021)

seanandkate said:


> Understood.... ***slinks away humming a different musical...***


Yeah... who can you turn to .....when nobody needs you... I guess you need to go where destiny leads you..


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## TimMc (Sep 14, 2021)

jtweigandt said:


> Yeah... who can you turn to .....when nobody needs you... I guess you need to go where destiny leads you..


... beg, steal or borrow / my share of laughter"


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## RonHebbard (Sep 29, 2021)

Both my parents were vaccinated for (?) in the 1940's; their vaccination left a small, circular, mark on their arms for life. 
Why is this (apparently) not the case with COVID 19 vaccinations? I'm thinking such marks could serve as your proof of vaccinations. 
TIA & Toodleoo! 
Ron Hebbard


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## jtweigandt (Sep 29, 2021)

That scar is from the smallpox vaccine. It was a "live" vaccine .. and acctually the name vaccine came from the virus that was used Vaccinia. Vaccinia was the name of the cowpox virus. Going way back to when Edward Jenner supposedly noticed that the milkmaids didn't get sick with smallpox... they were invariably exposed to cowpox.. which didn't make them ill. As to why some are lifelong and near 100% effective and others are not, Depends on multiple factors.. method of the virus (or bacteria) entering, speed of multiplication, and how fast the body's "memory" response is to crank out more protective antibodies and lymphocytes. 

Smallpox is the first pathogen to be eliminated completely from the human population, because the vaccine was so good and the WHO and others did targeted vaccine and monitoring toward the end. 

We were also getting close on polio as well, but unfriendly regimes and ongoing war in the 3rd world make that more difficult, along with world travel and the first world countries particularly the US letting their guard down. 

Other vaccines do not lend lifelong immunity. Lyme disease, Leptospirosis, in particular. Respiratory pathogens, with the possible exception of whooping cough are tough to crack. Even whooping cough vaccine, we found out the hard way in recent years can let you down later in life. 

Flu of course mutates if you so much as look at it wrong, but new multi valent vaccines may mitigate some of that. 

Corona doesn't get shut down in time to prevent shedding or mild disease in a lot of folks. But the vaccine would still be helpful in preventing spread... who's gonna affect more people.. someone who sheds for 3 days, or someone who sheds for 10?

We don't have good data on natural exposure immunity vs vaccine. There have been studies saying one is better than the other on both sides. 

But given how low the side effects have been on the Pfizer and Moderna in particular.. there's very little downside to vaccinating even those who have had the disease.

I liked the statement.. Chicken McNuggets have a higher side effects profile than the vaccine.


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