# Perceptions and facts about Coronavirus - discussion



## RonHebbard (Mar 8, 2020)

dvsDave said:


> Just had a case announced in our county, at the military base on the other side of the county, like 45 minutes away


For those like myself who profess _ZERO_ medical knowledge: Is this a case of if you survive it, you naturally acquire / develop an immunity making it more difficult to become reinfected OR? (No, I'm not proposing a new QOTD. ) 
Toodleoo! 
Ron Hebbard


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## TimMc (Mar 8, 2020)

I've decided the Andromeda Strain solution of a small thermonuclear device to "cauterize" an area is the answer. A good props master should have a source for U-235, right?


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## SteveB (Mar 8, 2020)

If you choose to follow the CDC and other guidelines to use hand sanitizers and soap, I can only state that in 3 trips to assorted supermarkets today and yesterday, there is no hand sanitizer to be had (NYC metro area). Anybody's guess when the manufacturers will ramp up and start pushing this stuff to the stores. I actually found in the basement a goodly supply of rubbing alcohol and gloves - helps to have a spouse who's a scenic and keeps this as part of her kit, so will make up some to keep with me.


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## dvsDave (Mar 8, 2020)

SteveB said:


> If you choose to follow the CDC and other guidelines to use hand sanitizers and soap, I can only state that in 3 trips to assorted supermarkets today and yesterday, there is no hand sanitizer to be had (NYC metro area). Anybody's guess when the manufacturers will ramp up and start pushing this stuff to the stores. I actually found in the basement a goodly supply of rubbing alcohol and gloves - helps to have a spouse who's a scenic and keeps this as part of her kit, so will make up some to keep with me.


Purell has been working basically 24/7 to ramp up production. https://www.cleveland.com/coronavir...eased-demand-due-to-coronavirus-concerns.html


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## MNicolai (Mar 8, 2020)

@SteveB, I managed to snag a gallon of Germ-X off of Amazon for $20, shortly after they ran out of the normal size and the price gouging started but before anyone remembered to look for bulk alternatives. Think I'll start selling dime bags of it and retire early.


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## egilson1 (Mar 8, 2020)

I spent an hour or so yesterday trying to stock up for my trip to ETC tomorrow. Nada, zip, ziltch. The town next to me has 11 town employees who were with an employee of Biogen who is a confirmed case. So they are all self quarantined. That being said, after watching the ESA webcast, and talking to my wife’s friend at the cdc, it all an over reaction. Unfortunate that that turns into loss revenue for people.


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## FMEng (Mar 8, 2020)

I am in the neighboring county to "ground zero." Events are being cancelled. Businesses, including my employer, are telling us to work from home whenever possible. Three, nearby colleges are switching to distance learning this week. Our legendary rush hour traffic is more like a weekend. My brother is in assisted living, and they are not allowing visitors because that is the most vulnerable population (60+). I don't know whether Egilson's friend is a secretary, or what, but this is the real deal, folks. I'm certainly not panicked, and I'm not stocking up on canned goods, but I am following the recommendations and being careful.

Warning: political comment. Trump is deliberately slowing testing and censoring what the medical experts can say. He's going to do everything he can to reduce the actual numbers to spin this to look "beautiful, just like his phone call." He admitted that when he said he preferred to leave the cruise ship off shore, "to keep the numbers down." He's trying what he always does, which is to hide or bluff his way past anything that he thinks reflects bad on him. It's going to backfire, because the lack of proper tracking of the disease is going to harm a lot of people. Unfortunately, we will ultimately pay dearly for electing this buffoon.


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## MNicolai (Mar 8, 2020)

egilson1 said:


> ...it all an over reaction. Unfortunate that that turns into loss revenue for people.



There's some unnecessary degree of panic, but just looking at that nursing home in WA -- 70 of 180 employees showing symptoms, 13 residents have died so far with confirmed COVID-19, another 11 deaths who have not been ruled in or out as COVID-19, of a total of 120 residents. They haven't even yet been able to test all of the residents. That's a pretty startling number of deaths in a small frame of time. Almost triple what the nursing home says they normally see in a typical month.

For those 20- and 30- somethings who want to mosh at a festival, COVID-19 may not pose a major risk but when they go home to their families or go back to work now they could be spreading it to people who are in at-risk populations. I live in God's Waiting Room and a tourist destination, so this area will see the impact both in tourism revenue and in deaths. Community and repertory theaters whose audience base is largely over 50/60 will probably have a depressed turnout across the country. If I had to guess, I'd estimate we're probably looking at 3-6 months of most large assembly events getting cancelled or seeing depressed turnout, and another few/several months to rebound from that.

The US bungled the response to this. There are probably many, many more cases in the wild that have not been confirmed or tested, including deaths. The CDC seems to be taking a "Don't Ask, Don't Tell, Dammit I Said Don't Tell" approach to testing for lacking of being prepared to test. Doctors are turning people away, saying they're not allowed to test and telling people to return if their symptoms worsen. This is all to say that the experiment has escaped the cage and this is going to get worse before it gets better. If/when we can test as many people as we should be testing and the statistics catch up to reality, the US will probably see more of a reaction of people avoiding public gatherings.

I was hoping to see Rammstein's tour in August, but with this on the horizon I'm not going to bother attempting to make those plans until it's more clear where we will be in 5 months. For that matter I'm supposed to be travelling to see all of my family next month for my brother's wedding. We had the first confirmed case in Florida a mile from my office. The patient was out in the community and at the hospital before the CDC raised warning flags, so the doctors were looking for pneumonia and were not attempting to quarantine him until late in his cycle of having the virus. The virus is likely spreading in my community, so I'm thinking twice about whether or not to go to my brother's wedding next month. Both of my parents are around 70 yrs old, so I don't want to be the straw that breaks the camel's back for them or anyone else who may be attending.

For anyone in our business living contract to contract, now's probably a good time to take a close look at finances and consider backup plans if this leads to prolonged disruptions in the entertainment industry. Things are likely to suck for next six months.


FMEng said:


> ...he preferred to leave the cruise ship off shore, "to keep the numbers down."



Wouldn't encourage anyone to take a cruise right now, but the risk of getting stranded away from suitable medical facilities will be a nail in the coffin of the cruise industry for the foreseeable future. Screwing around with policy to save face on numbers is going to make a bad situation worse.


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## SteveB (Mar 8, 2020)

No, no cruises, or airline flights. The State Dept. has already warned Americans to not take cruises. That’s going to make the cruise line companies go into panic mode as they see their business go into hibernation for the next 6 mos. ?.

Airlines will follow suit shortly and people will not be flying unless it’s a life or death reason.

I am anticipating that our college will be slow to close, it’s the City University of NY and generally only closes when the NYC schools close. When that happens you know things are dire but who knows, the Governor of NY may well take proactive decisions as they realize that schools are huge hotbeds of an illness like this.

EDIT:, And as we all work (mostly) in places of public assembly, we will see activities and events cancelled. Many, if not all for a duration that nobody can estimate.

My take is this is going to be a huge hit to both the US and global economy, forgeting for a moment the potential for a lot of people dying. In theory we are a better able to deal with a pandemic like this due to better communications and better medical systems, than say the Spanish Flu of 100 years ago, but already are seeing a very disjointed response at the national level, where they should have been all over this 2 weeks ago and have not been.


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## RonHebbard (Mar 8, 2020)

FMEng said:


> I am in the neighboring county to "ground zero." Events are being cancelled. Businesses, including my employer, are telling us to work from home whenever possible. Three, nearby colleges are switching to distance learning this week. Our legendary rush hour traffic is more like a weekend. My brother is in assisted living, and they are not allowing visitors because that is the most vulnerable population (60+). I don't know whether Egilson's friend is a secretary, or what, but this is the real deal, folks. I'm certainly not panicked, and I'm not stocking up on canned goods, but I am following the recommendations and being careful.
> 
> Warning: political comment. Trump is deliberately slowing testing and censoring what the medical experts can say. He's going to do everything he can to reduce the actual numbers to spin this to look "beautiful, just like his phone call." He admitted that when he said he preferred to leave the cruise ship off shore, "to keep the numbers down." He's trying what he always does, which is to hide or bluff his way past anything that he thinks reflects bad on him. It's going to backfire, because the lack of proper tracking of the disease is going to harm a lot of people. Unfortunately, we will ultimately pay dearly for electing this buffoon.


 *@FMEng *
Thank *@dvsDave* we're not posting on ProSound's LAB. I've been in and out of one of our local hospitals 3 times this past week; twice last Sunday alone. You wanna believe they're taking this SERIOUSLY: 

The hospital's triage person on duty Sunday at 3:30 a.m.: "When were you last out of Canada?" 
Me: "I haven't been out of my room for the past month." 
Released from hospital at ~5:30 a.m. Back in emergency by 9:30 a.m. 
All hospital staff had a shift change at 7:00 a.m. The people who released me at ~5:30 a.m. were no longer there. 
At 9:30 a.m., their triage nurse began as if she'd never met me before, because she hadn't. I showed her the arm band the overnight shift had shackled on my right wrist and suggested she scan my bar code. 
No! (snip) and we began again from the overture. 

Released for my second time Sunday at ~1:30 p.m. with an RX and a decree to reappear Tuesday morning with ~10:00 as a suggested arrival time. 
Accessories inserted and installed TWICE on Sunday March 1st were extracted and removed for the second time Tuesday March 3rd shortly past 1:30 p.m. 
*Short version*: Yes, this IS definitely being taken VERY seriously. 

With my apologies for your buffoon: May the force get him, if not the force, possibly MERSA, Corona Virus, AIDS, Tuberculosis or 17 wacko's toting their 2nd amendment MANDATORY full bore ASSAULT RIFLES!! Thank you *@dvsDave* I'll again stifle myself on my side of lil' Donnie's walls. 
Toodleoo! 
Ron Hebbard


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## FMEng (Mar 8, 2020)

Sorry that you've been in/out of hospitals Ron. That's never fun, but especially not now. Feel better quickly.

The latest news is that as the test kits gradually become more available, the laboratory capacity is still extremely limited, and lab approvals is slow. I read that the CDC hasn't approved the New York state lab to test yet. Gee, I wonder why?


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## SteveB (Mar 8, 2020)

FMEng said:


> Sorry that you've been in/out of hospitals Ron. That's never fun, but especially not now. Feel better quickly.
> 
> The latest news is that as the test kits gradually become more available, the laboratory capacity is still extremely limited, and lab approvals is slow. I read that the CDC hasn't approved the New York state lab to test yet. Gee, I wonder why?



1 lab, Northwell Health was approved today. I think there are 3 or 4 additional large capacity labs in the NYC area shortly to get approval. The Governor is screaming bloody on this and is ready to hammer the government leadership over the delays.


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## BillConnerFASTC (Mar 9, 2020)

Around 100 people die per day in US from automobile accidents. So far, total deaths in US from caronavirus is in low 20s last I heard. Total. Just perspective. Just odd we don't get more excited about sear belt use and DUI which cause many many more deaths. I guess if it bleeds it leads, and we are a society that loves the media.


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## RonHebbard (Mar 9, 2020)

BillConnerFASTC said:


> Around 100 people die per day in US from automobile accidents. So far, total deaths in US from caronavirus is in low 20s last I heard. Total. Just perspective. Just odd we don't get more excited about sear belt use and DUI which cause many many more deaths. I guess if it bleeds it leads, and we are a society that loves the media.


 DUI, seat belts, and life jackets in boats, canoes, 'n kayaks.
*"if it bleeds it leads"* You've sunk to a new low in the annals of journalism; annals, an inadvertent, Freudian, near slip of, I won't say it: (tongue) [I feel the justifiable pending descent of @dvsDave 's Silver Hammer] *@derekleffew* and / or *@GreyWyvern* Comments and / or thoughts?*?*
Toodleoo! 
Ron Hebbard


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## dvsDave (Mar 9, 2020)

BillConnerFASTC said:


> Around 100 people die per day in US from automobile accidents. So far, total deaths in US from caronavirus is in low 20s last I heard. Total. Just perspective. Just odd we don't get more excited about sear belt use and DUI which cause many many more deaths. I guess if it bleeds it leads, and we are a society that loves the media.



I don't think that's fair, either as a comparison or to the media. Automobile accidents are in the news all the time, a bus driver has a heart attack and the bus hit a tree, and a child died, a car lost control and skidded off the highway in the mountains and was lost in the snow, and wasn't found for weeks, etc, etc, etc. There are examples of tragic accidents and road-rage, vehicle pileups and senseless acts of violence everyday.

But, those things are an _accepted risk_ of getting into your car everyday. Kids today are taught to drive more defensively in drivers Ed, cars have gotten much safer, with anti-collision sensors, and automated braking, and a host of thousands of incremental improvements every year. Better crumple zones, stronger and lighter materials, better airbags, more airbags, active sensors on seatbelt pre-tensioners, sensors that detect if you start falling asleep at the wheel. Lane-drift correction, the list goes on and on. We, as a society, are getting really good at being able to mitigate as much risk as possible, while still allowing the freedoms we all enjoy today. 

Coronavirus is much scarier than a car accident, you can't see it, you can't sense it, and you have no _immediate_ way to know if you contracted it. It traveled so fast through parts of China that production of goods basically came to a standstill, and the Chinese government responded by putting more than 45 MILLION people into involuntary quarantine, which would basically be the same as the US shutting down all of California and Oregon combined. That is a very scary prospect. The scope, and speed of transmission is what sets coronavirus apart. It's not part of society's collective known risk factors.

We all accept that influenza raises it's ugly head every winter, in fact, myself and my whole family, all 7 of us, had influenza over a two week period in February. It nailed our house, we were in a self-imposed quarantine for nearly 2 weeks, only venturing out to the doc's and to the pharmacy. We had groceries delivered, and thankfully, I work remotely from home. What could have been a major financial blow for us was not, and I know that I am extremely lucky in that regard. I have a great job, and the flexibility to take time off, or work in my PJs at odd hours while sipping soup and trying to breathe normally. The whole family getting the flu sucked, like a lot, and it truly underscores the fact that we need true healthcare reform in this country, we were able to weather the flu because we all had insurance, either provided by my job, or through the state. Too many people do not have that. But, I digress. 

The flu is a known risk factor. Coronavirus is not part of our collective risk factors. It's an outlier, a non-discriminating virus, transmitted invisibly and undetectably. Our only saving grace is that while it's amazingly easy to transmit, it's not sd amazingly deadly. Please don't get me wrong, it's still deadly and has killed thousands, but its death vs transmission rate could be much worse. That said, the statistics of coronavirus survival on non-immunocompromised people is really good. Especially for kids. That's the good news, the bad news is that it's _really_ bad for people who have respiratory issues and for older generations. Older people, and people with pre-existing medical conditions (such as asthma, diabetes, heart disease) appear to be more vulnerable to becoming severely ill with the virus.

Much remains unknown about the novel coronavirus ripping through China, but one thing is certain. The disease can cast a storm over the whole human body. Such has been the nature of past zoonotic coronaviruses, ones that hopped from animals to humans like SARS and MERS. Unlike their common-cold-causing cousins, these emergent coronaviruses can spark a viral-induced fire throughout many of a person’s organs, and the new disease—dubbed "COVID-19" by the World Health Organization—is no exception when it is severe.

That helps explain why the COVID-19 epidemic has killed more than 3,800 people, surpassing the SARS death toll in a matter of weeks. While the death rate for COVID-19 appears to be a fifth of SARS, COVID-19 has spread faster.
On February 14th, the confirmed cases rose to more than 50,000, nearly a 50 percent jump relative to the prior day, and the tally has since increased by another 13,000. Today, it stands at over 111,000 globally. The leap in cases reflects a change in the way Chinese authorities are diagnosing infections instead of a massive shift in the scope of the outbreak. Rather than wait for patients to test positive for the virus, diagnoses now include anyone whose chest scan reveals COVID-19’s _distinctive pattern of pneumonia_. This is what kills people, the way it attacks our respiratory system, causing the cilia, which helps keep our lungs clear, to die and we basically drown with fluid in our lungs. The virus ups the ante by attacking the cytokine response, which is our bodies attack beacon for our immune system, and our body starts attacking healthy cells as well. 

All of this is to say that the danger is not over-hyped. It is deadly, maybe not to you, but to a large segment of the global population, it has the potential to be fatal. We have seen pandemics before, but this one is scarier because of how fast it travels. I don't think the media is overplaying this. 

We, as a society, need a wake-up call. A call for taking better care of ourselves, a call to recognize that the herd has to protect the weak and that we all share the responsibility to act responsibly and try not to spread our illnesses around. 

Perhaps, for those of us in the US, this is what we need to finally get people to agree that healthcare for all benefits society as a whole. I really don't care where people stand politically on most subjects, but there is no good argument that our current system isn't terribly broken and that healthcare should be a basic human right. 

So, let's stop comparing coronavirus to other risk factors of life, like auto deaths, influenza, and obesity. These are all known risk factors, that we have the ability to fight. When we have a vaccine for coronavirus, it will fade from our consciousness, but until it does, it's gonna be part of the conversation for the next year or two, and it will have a lasting impact on our society.


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## dvsDave (Mar 9, 2020)

RonHebbard said:


> DUI, seat belts, and life jackets in boats, canoes, 'n kayaks.
> *"if it bleeds it leads"* You've sunk to a new low in the annals of journalism; annals, an inadvertent, Freudian, near slip of, I won't say it: (tongue) [I feel the justifiable pending descent of @dvsDave 's Silver Hammer] *@derekleffew* and / or *@GreyWyvern* Comments and / or thoughts?*?*
> Toodleoo!
> Ron Hebbard


Not gonna ban Bill for an opinion. I did respond with my own thoughts, but not gonna ban him for that. I hope we can keep the conversation going.


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## RonHebbard (Mar 9, 2020)

dvsDave said:


> Not gonna ban Bill for an opinion. I did respond with my own thoughts, but not gonna ban him for that. I hope we can keep the conversation going.


*@dvsDave * I felt you were going to delete me for daring to critique FAST Billiy's comments / opinion. Your post was MUCH appreciated, not anticipated but MUCH appreciated. 
Toodleoo! 
Ron Hebbard


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## Van (Mar 9, 2020)

We've two cases in the Hillsboro area, West of Portland proper but the middle of Intel and Nike country. Vancouver Washington just had it's first confirmed case. and Portland Proper had it's first case diagnosed at OHSU. As the husband of a woman who works at a Title one school I'm quite concerned for her health. 
I believe @RonHebbard asked if this was like the flu or other viruses where you gain immunity after infection and recovery. Short Answer, no, it seems that COVID-19 is maintaining a 20% re-infection rate in China 13-15% everywhere else but that may just be due to better testing and caution in China. 
Is it Panic in the streets time? No. Is it time to be poo-pooing safety measures and writing this off as a cold? No. the Flu has a mortality rate of .1% COVID-19 has a 3-5% by loose calcs, 2-3 by conservative counts and in the US if you take reported cases and reported deaths we're at 14-17% but that's because active cases are not being screened for or diagnosed. Why? because we have not acted in a timely fashion. The politically expeditious idea of Don't test/Don't Tell doesn't work real well when dealing with an emerging virus, of course gutting the CDC and all of it's international outreach centers is a real brainiac move too but, hey, why start keeping track of bonehead moves now, Right? 

For the record The Spanish Flu of 1918 had a mortality rate of 1-2%, at it's highest it's estimated that 1/3 of the worlds population was infected. In the end the widely agreed upon death toll was 25-39 million. Some estimates put it as high as 100 Million because we have no idea what the infection and death toll was in China and other 3rd world areas.


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## RonHebbard (Mar 9, 2020)

Van said:


> We've two cases in the Hillsboro area, West of Portland proper but the middle of Intel and Nike country. Vancouver Washington just had it's first confirmed case. and Portland Proper had it's first case diagnosed at OHSU. As the husband of a woman who works at a Title one school I'm quite concerned for her health.
> I believe @RonHebbard asked if this was like the flu or other viruses where you gain immunity after infection and recovery. Short Answer, no, it seems that COVID-19 is maintaining a 20% re-infection rate in China 13-15% everywhere else but that may just be due to better testing and caution in China.
> Is it Panic in the streets time? No. Is it time to be poo-pooing safety measures and writing this off as a cold? No. the Flu has a mortality rate of .1% COVID-19 has a 3-5% by loose calcs, 2-3 by conservative counts and in the US if you take reported cases and reported deaths we're at 14-17% but that's because active cases are not being screened for or diagnosed. Why? because we have not acted in a timely fashion. The politically expeditious idea of Don't test/Don't Tell doesn't work real well when dealing with an emerging virus, of course gutting the CDC and all of it's international outreach centers is a real brainiac move too but, hey, why start keeping track of bonehead moves now, Right?
> 
> For the record The Spanish Flu of 1918 had a mortality rate of 1-2%, at it's highest it's estimated that 1/3 of the worlds population was infected. In the end the widely agreed upon death toll was 25-39 million. Some estimates put it as high as 100 Million because we have no idea what the infection and death toll was in China and other 3rd world areas.


 I'm still chuckling and chortling. Quoting you: "why start keeping track of bonehead moves now" 
You're from Portland, betcha can't count that HIGH, even with your snazzy new, made in Malaysia, DIGITAL abacus!!! 
( Know when you're being ragged mercilessly 'n please keep your pet buffoon on his side of his walls! ) 
Toodleoo! 
Ron Hebbard


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## RonHebbard (Mar 12, 2020)

StradivariusBone said:


> I'm seeing a ton of freelancers in the industry rightfully freaking out about lost income from show/event cancellations. Is there any group organizing any sort of relief for these guys/gals? I'm a HS TD and we're just starting to get wind of the possibility of cancellations here. I saw in CA they are banning gatherings of 250+ and in about 4 weeks that will be all we do with our public shows, concerts, band/chorus/orch, graduations. I just was about to make a big lumber purchase for our spring musical build and I'm holding off since I don't know if they'll cancel it on us. It's wild, but I know I'll still get paid either way, but if there's a way to donate to help people that are in limbo I'd like to get behind it, even if it's a little.
> 
> And definitely don't ban Bill for his opinion LOL That was my opinion 100% until my wife yelled at me and explained all the stuff that Dave was talking about. I do agree the media loves a good scare story, but this thing also looks pretty rough. @RonHebbard I hope your trips to the hospital are boring and uneventful! My dad who is in his 70's is shutting in and riding it out. I'm keeping myself and my 8 year old germ factory away for the time being.


 *@StradivariusBone* I wasn't suggesting _FAST_ Billie'd get deleted but myself. My expeditions to and fro' our local hospital were a fabulous treat, I met many, MANY, fabulously attractive ladies; ALL ladies are attractive, some more so than others; more than 'enough said. 
Toodleoo! 
Ron Hebbard


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## dvsDave (Mar 12, 2020)

Moving conversations about the coronavirus here.


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## TimMc (Mar 12, 2020)

RonHebbard said:


> *@StradivariusBone* I wasn't suggesting _FAST_ Billie'd get deleted but myself. My expeditions to and fro' our local hospital were a fabulous treat, I met many, MANY, fabulously attractive ladies; ALL ladies are attractive, some more so than others; more than 'enough said.
> Toodleoo!
> Ron Hebbard


Damn sight-seers...

My Doc said "use the precautions with people you think are healthy as you'd use with those who are not." Do they sell bubble suits on Amazon?


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## RonHebbard (Mar 12, 2020)

TimMc said:


> Damn sight-seers...
> 
> Do they sell bubble suits on Amazon?


Of course! Child's through QUINTUPLE *LARGE* in gals, guys, and a variety of amalgams; nothing slow 'bout those tall Amazon gals. 
Toodleoo! 
Ron Hebbard


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## Ben Stiegler (Mar 12, 2020)

dvsDave said:


> I don't think that's fair, either as a comparison or to the media. Automobile accidents are in the news all the time, a bus driver has a heart attack and the bus hit a tree, and a child died, a car lost control and skidded off the highway in the mountains and was lost in the snow, and wasn't found for weeks, etc, etc, etc. There are examples of tragic accidents and road-rage, vehicle pileups and senseless acts of violence everyday.
> 
> But, those things are an _accepted risk_ of getting into your car everyday. Kids today are taught to drive more defensively in drivers Ed, cars have gotten much safer, with anti-collision sensors, and automated braking, and a host of thousands of incremental improvements every year. Better crumple zones, stronger and lighter materials, better airbags, more airbags, active sensors on seatbelt pre-tensioners, sensors that detect if you start falling asleep at the wheel. Lane-drift correction, the list goes on and on. We, as a society, are getting really good at being able to mitigate as much risk as possible, while still allowing the freedoms we all enjoy today.
> 
> ...


well said, Dave!


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## Ben Stiegler (Mar 12, 2020)

Here is hands-down the BEST analysis (and help-yourself play with the model) article I've seen in a month, by Tomas Pueyo. "Corona Virus - why you MUST act now.

Lots of graphs, lots of recommendations. Takeaway - shut down events/isolate HARD now, as even a 1-2 day delay in implementing measures allows exponential growth of contact and cases. Our medical system is woefully under-supplied (for example, only 250 functioning special respiratory assist devices in the US at the moment) - and we can't build these out of muslin and 2x4s quickly. I urge you to read this all the way thru - then use your best judgement and influence to create as much safety as possible for yourself, loved ones, work mates, and the public.


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## BillConnerFASTC (Mar 12, 2020)

To Ron's last post here: And the older the violin, the sweeter the music (if the sound guy hasn't messed it up).


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## macsound (Mar 13, 2020)

I've seen some of my friends deciding to make spur of the moment trips because of low prices. Also because airlines are offering refunds no questions asked, the planes are virtually empty and no longer as much of an issue for contracting diseases.
I can also see the supply/ demand thing with TP and hand sanitizer, all of the crazies who stocked up for the end of the world won't be purchasing any time soon, so once the shelves get restocked, they will deplete at normal or less than normal rates.


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## JimOC_1 (Mar 13, 2020)

RonHebbard said:


> For those like myself who profess _ZERO_ medical knowledge: Is this a case of if you survive it, you naturally acquire / develop an immunity making it more difficult to become reinfected OR? (No, I'm not proposing a new QOTD. )
> Toodleoo!
> Ron Hebbard


Hi Ron,
Regrets on your hospital trips and get well soon. Did you get to ask the medical folks your question? Word out of China has been considered suspect. It's one bug, and not hundreds of types like the common cold (becoming immune to one type of cold may not protect from the next one). I've heard the expectation is that people do get immunity like other _Coronavirus_ . The question is will this bug mutate it's outer shell and come back around?
Get better,
Jim


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## JChenault (Mar 13, 2020)

Dave

in your post you said.


dvsDave said:


> The flu is a known risk factor. Coronavirus is not part of our collective risk factors. It's an outlier, a non-discriminating virus, transmitted invisibly and undetectably. Our only saving grace is that while it's amazingly easy to transmit, it's not sd amazingly deadly. Please don't get me wrong, it's still deadly and has killed thousands, but its death vs transmission rate could be much worse. That said, the statistics of coronavirus survival on non-immunocompromised people is really good. Especially for kids. That's the good news, the bad news is that it's _really_ bad for people who have respiratory issues and for older generations. Older people, and people with pre-existing medical conditions (such as asthma, diabetes, heart disease) appear to be more vulnerable to becoming severely ill with the virus.



i believe you are wrong about “statistics for survival on non-immunocompromised people is really good “

the stats from China show a case fatality rate of 2.3% from all confirmed cases. That rose to 8% for ages 70 to 79 and 14.8% for ages over 80. Looking at the numbers for underlying medical conditions make me think age is at least as important than other factors. ( stats from an AMA paper about the Chinese experience)

it may just be the fact that I am (just) over 70, but if I can’t avoid the disease, I have an 8% chance of death. Doesn’t sound good to me.

personally I’m worried and a bit scared ( and washing my hands a lot )


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## dvsDave (Mar 13, 2020)

JChenault said:


> Dave
> 
> in your post you said.
> 
> ...



That's fair, I should have included older demographics as well. In my defense, I initially wrote that post really early in the morning (for me).


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## Ancient Engineer (Mar 17, 2020)

I should probably not post this because it will paint me a morbid MF, which I am not.

But perspective is always interesting at least.

This virus has to kill 6,000,000,000 (that is billion) people to reduce the earth's population to 1930s levels...

I would comment on the conditions in the 1930s, but that would be pedantic.

It took us about 200,000 years to go from cave dwelling to 2,000,000,000 people in 1930.

It took only 90 more years to get to 8,000,000,000.

No snarky comment needed about growth rates, but in reality, Covid is unlikely to be radical fast enough to cause this kind of destruction to our population.

A group of science professionals have determined that a measurable part of global warming is the radiant heat from living humans...

In our own minds we think 1000 or 10,000 people is a lot. It isn't. Unless you have to pick them up.

We may have closely encountered 100,000 people in the course our lives, or .0000125 of the planet's population...

So, when the news readers strike fear into your heart that the deaths have "surged" to 6606 (per the WHO report today 17MAR20) it is not even close to the end of times.

6606 deaths worldwide, or .000000825 of the planet's population.

Namaste.


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## BillConnerFASTC (Mar 17, 2020)

dvsDave said:


> But, those things are an _accepted risk_ of getting into your car everyday



Just had some time and wanted to note 16% of those are pedestrians. I guess if you go walking you could consider getting plowed down by a car as an accepted risk, but I don't. That's in US, and reported as over 6000 in 2018. As reported by CBS on line this afternoon, 95 deaths from coronavirus in US so far of 5700 diagnosed. 

If you look at it like the Italians look at this, you might consider the majority of coronavirus deaths are over 60, and the deaths caused by vehicles concentrated in the 17-44 age range.

You may believe the coronavirus is a bigger threat to humanity than DUIs, but I don't. And besides, after a couple of pandemics like this, we'll become complacent like we have for so many other things. And I'm in the coronavirus high risk group for this.


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## dvsDave (Mar 17, 2020)

BillConnerFASTC said:


> Just had some time and wanted to note 16% of those are pedestrians. I guess if you go walking you could consider getting plowed down by a car as an accepted risk, but I don't. That's in US, and reported as over 6000 in 2018. As reported by CBS on line this afternoon, 95 deaths from coronavirus in US so far of 5700 diagnosed.
> 
> If you look at it like the Italians look at this, you might consider the majority of coronavirus deaths are over 60, and the deaths caused by vehicles concentrated in the 17-44 age range.
> 
> You may believe the coronavirus is a bigger threat to humanity than DUIs, but I don't. And besides, after a couple of pandemics like this, we'll become complacent like we have for so many other things. And I'm in the coronavirus high risk group for this.


But again, there are ways to mitigate these dangers. Curbs, bollards, bollards disguised as massive planters (seriously all over DC), pedestrian warning systems + active braking in cars, etc. We have the tech to mitigate this, and we haven't stopped developing it further. And we'll never know how many of those pedestrian deaths were avoided, or how many could have been avoided with the right technology, better road/sidewalk design, or better public transportation options. 

Now, I wrote the initial post back on March 9th, and a lot has changed in our world since then. We now know what is required of us, social distancing, quarantine, and self-isolation. Only time will tell how effective it all is, we still don't even know the true morbidity rate of this virus, since it now appears that a LOT of people may have it and it's so mild it's nothing more than a cough/cold in presentation. Hopefully, it will be lower than we feared, and we see start seeing a slowdown in reported cases, of course, that means we need enough test kits available to determine this with any degree of precision. The tricky part is once the infection rate starts to slow, we keep the social distancing going for enough time that we can really stop this thing in its tracks. I would argue that it's as dangerous as we feared. @gafftaper pointed me to an Influenza genetic study going on in Seattle. They had some of the earliest information about COVID-19 pop up in their results. They studied two cases 6 weeks apart in time. Genetically they could see that the one was a direct descendant of the other. The two people lived 20 miles apart and had no connections to each other. They figure it passed undetected through at least 6 people to reach patient #2. Meanwhile, if every generation infects 2 people, passing through 6 people in between means there are 253 others who had it undetected... And they infected 506 people who infected 1012 people... This is the sort of math that makes CV more dangerous than pedestrian deaths. Pedestrian deaths don't spread exponentially.


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## RonHebbard (Mar 17, 2020)

BillConnerFASTC said:


> After a couple of pandemics like this, we'll become complacent like we have for so many other things, I'm in the coronavirus high risk group for this.


 The high risk of complacency??? 
Toodleoo! 
Ron Hebbard


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## gafftaper (Mar 17, 2020)

My wife is a nurse in a cancer center. All of her patients are on chemotherapy so they are incredibly fragile and at high risk at this time. So my wife spends a good part of her day studying all of the latest research and announcements from the WHO, CDC, major research institutions, and her own hospital network's policies. If you have any questions post them here and I'll try to get answers for you.


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## BillConnerFASTC (Mar 17, 2020)

dvsDave said:


> Pedestrian deaths don't spread exponentially.


Interestingly they are increasing each year. No cause noted but I suspect EVs - that technology.

We can look back in a few years and see where this pandemic ranks in terms of leading causes of death .


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## JChenault (Mar 17, 2020)

To Ancient Engineer.
Not sure why you picked 1930 as an reference point, but you made me wonder if I come up with a guesstimate for deaths in USA

So I did a back of the napkin calculation on probably deaths in the US based on China experience from a JAMA ( Journal of American Medical Association) article.

At the writing of the paper, There were 44, 672 confirmed cases. Most in Wuhan. Wuhan has a population of 11 million.
That means that approximately .004 of the population contracted the disease with enough symptoms that they were considered sick. 
On the 44,672 who were confirmed, the death rate was 2.3% ( Much higher among older patients. 8% in my age group.

So if we simply expand that to the US with a population of 330 million, we should expect about 1,320,000 confirmed cases.
If we apply the 2.3% death rate that gets us to about 30,000 deaths.

So that is around the death rate from auto deaths in this country for a year.

But the Chinese experience is not yet over. The number of cases is lowering, but there are still new cases ( and new deaths)
And the Chinese took draconian quarantine procedures that are unlikely to be imposed here.

30,000 is probably a reasonable floor for deaths in US. If we work hard at keeping the virus from spreading. If we don't contain it - and our hospitals get swamped - it could be substantially worse.

Just my back of the envelope calculation. - and I am not a health care professional.

One of my fears ( and should be Gafftapers as well) is that 3.8% of the cases were from health care professionals. That indicates that his wife ( and mine ) are at much greater risk from this disease than the general population.


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## RonHebbard (Mar 17, 2020)

JChenault said:


> To @Ancient Engineer.
> I did a back of the napkin calculation on probable deaths in the US; Just my back of the envelope calculation.
> Which is more accurate, your napkin or your envelope; do liquid libations absorbed by your napkin affect its calculus / calculations?
> Toodleoo!
> Ron Hebbard


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## Ancient Engineer (Mar 18, 2020)

1930, because that is when the planet's population was at 2 billion. It was the first true evidence that the industrial revolution was causing a population explosion that was unlikely to cease.


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## sk8rsdad (Mar 18, 2020)

Food for thought for anybody who operates a performance venue.








We’re not going back to normal

Social distancing is here to stay for much more than a few weeks. It will upend our way of life, in some ways forever.



www.technologyreview.com


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## BillConnerFASTC (Mar 18, 2020)

JChenault said:


> Wuhan has a population of 11 million.


It also has live meat markets out of doors where people shop and eat and where this all started. Hygiene and sanitation is different there. Multi generational housing. Just seems like not a great model for US.


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## MNicolai (Mar 18, 2020)

BillConnerFASTC said:


> It also has live meat markets out of doors where people shop and eat and where this all started. Hygiene and sanitation is different there. Multi generational housing. Just seems like not a great model for US.



No doubt that and how densely packed their population is makes it easier for something to spread, but it's important to note that meat/fish markets are no longer considered the source of the virus. Based on genome sequencing, they believe it came from bats because of the similarities to another bat coronavirus, possibly courtesy of an intermediary host of another animal before it infected someone and started spreading.

Sorry - have to be explicit about that. I'm seeing and hearing too much misinformation about how this came out of meat market or a Chinese lab -- whether as a bioweapon or as a lab accident. It's astonishing how many people think that someone dropped a petri dish and now here we are.


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## gafftaper (Mar 18, 2020)

JChenault said:


> To Ancient Engineer.
> Not sure why you picked 1930 as an reference point, but you made me wonder if I come up with a guesstimate for deaths in USA
> 
> So I did a back of the napkin calculation on probably deaths in the US based on China experience from a JAMA ( Journal of American Medical Association) article.
> ...


You point out a critical issue in everyone's math. We have a very short term view of the numbers. China has slowed the spread, but it's still there and it will continue to kill people for the next year or more until we get a vaccine. We keep doing math based on what has happened so far. We think of this like flu that has a season, but we don't know that to be true. In fact early research in warm climates suggests it will survive the heat of summer. 

The point of that flattened curve is that the same huge number of people will get it, we just slow the spread out over a long time to keep a manageable rate so there are enough hospital beds for treatment. We keep the death toll down by slowing the infection rate to one we can handle. The alternative is let it run wild and they triage you at the hospital and split patients between the holding area with only comfort care and the area with treatment for those with a higher percentage chance of survival. That's not fiction, hospitals already have procedures in place for what to do if they have twice the number of patients as beds. It's not pleasant.


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## BillConnerFASTC (Mar 18, 2020)

MNicolai said:


> No doubt that and how densely packed their population is makes it easier for something to spread, but it's important to note that meat/fish markets are no longer considered the source of the virus. Based on genome sequencing, they believe it came from bats because of the similarities to another bat coronavirus, possibly courtesy of an intermediary host of another animal before it infected someone and started spreading.
> 
> Sorry - have to be explicit about that. I'm seeing and hearing too much misinformation about how this came out of meat market or a Chinese lab -- whether as a bioweapon or as a lab accident. It's astonishing how many people think that someone dropped a petri dish and now here we are.


I never suggested or thought this was a lab produced pandemic. I'll leave that to the conspiracy folks.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175442.htm suggest bats but probably with an intermediate animal. Whether through wet markets - the legal and usual source for fresh food in China - or black markets, the Chinese do like exotic meats. And my point was caution in assuming the conditions in China are the same as in US, and may affect how this plays out.


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## TimMc (Mar 18, 2020)

sk8rsdad said:


> Food for thought for anybody who operates a performance venue.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That's pretty bleak for those of us who still need to work in these crafts as they currently exist. By the time I'd be re-trained enough to be productive, I'd be retirement age.


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## sk8rsdad (Mar 18, 2020)

I agree the article is looking at worse possible outcomes. I don't think governments are going to impose country-wide restrictions for localized outbreaks. I can see ongoing programs put in place if such policies were enacted so the compensation is predictable and more automatic.

However, there may be ongoing requirements for public gatherings. For instance, maybe there will be caps on attendance or requirements for large events to add thermal imaging scanners in addition to the usual security checks for contraband and firearms. Perhaps changes to seat spacing or maximum occupancy thresholds that lower the density of audiences. The sort of things that add expenses and reduce overall revenue.

I am thinking about reaching out to all the venue operators I know about crafting some sort of letter to our local representatives about the impacts the restrictions are having and will continue to have. I don't expect much action out of it but it is not at all clear that we are on anybody's radar at the moment.


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## Matt Marcus (Mar 18, 2020)

Admin-

Will you please shut this particular thread down? It is unhelpful and full of misinformation.

Information about this public health crisis needs to be coming from the WHO and CDC, not a bunch of theatre nerds spitballing.

Thx.


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## BillConnerFASTC (Mar 18, 2020)

Just like the the financial crisis of 2008-2008, the Iraq War, 9/11, Operation Desert Storm, (and before my memory) the Korean Conflict, WWII, and others I don't recall or before that, stuff happens. somehow, we seem to have survived and I expect we will survive this and future events.


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## Mac Hosehead (Mar 20, 2020)

Life imitates art.

Almost a week into "Shelter in Place" and it is starting to feel like a strange episode of "Waiting for Godot" where you hope Godot doesn't show up.

I bought a Colortran Colorspot from a church for $30 in January. A unique followspot. Not sure when it's going to get used.

Flowers are starting to bloom in my yard. I snuck out and bought some potting mix from the hardware store.

I have about two weeks of toilet paper left so I guess everything is good.


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## gafftaper (Mar 22, 2020)

I'm closing this thread and starting a new thread in the General forum that will be hosted by my wife who is a nurse. If you have any questions or comments about COVID-19, please join the discussion.


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